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ANALYSIS: Swing Voters’ Reaction to Federal Criminal Indictment Against Trump

One Country Project worked with Impact Social to examine swing voters’ attitudes regarding the federal criminal indictment against former president Donald Trump.

Trump’s 2024 re-election bid cannot find success with his MAGA base alone. He will need to garner support from moderate Republicans and Independents. However, the analysis of 40,000 swing voters from May 12 to June 12, 2023 found that, in the face of a federal arrest, they maintain an unfavorable view of Trump and are concerned that even being arrested for federal offenses will fail to dial back the support of his MAGA base.

Swing voters are also acutely aware that should Trump win office, he could stop all indictments against him and pardon himself of any crimes of which he may have been found guilty, thereby evading justice and accountability. In their view, voting against Trump not only prevents him gaining power, it also allows justice to be served―giving them an additional incentive to vote for other contenders.

This analysis builds on previous analysis from March 18 to April 1, 2023 following Trump’s indictment in New York for over 30 counts related to business fraud, which earned him the dishonor of becoming the first former president in American history to face criminal charges. Many Independents then were calling for Trump’s arrest and were glad to see him in court. That analysis found that swing voters’ net sentiment score towards Trump remained at a -32―and that his legal woes are only an issue for Trump, with little impact on the brand of competitors President Biden and Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Read the full analysis here.

Posted on June 13, 2023 in Research.
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